Maple Story - Archive (5/11/2006)

TelinArtho
Posted 5/11/2006 8:26:47 AM
The poker question:
Please refer to this link if you have any question on the math: http://www.bet-the-pot.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12953

The big factor of the problem is the fact that 1st and 2nd place are the same reward: a $12k package to the WSOP. 3rd place is already guaranteed to one of the 3 players for a whopping $900.

In situations like this, you have to look for the greatest Expected Value (EV) of your actions and hope that luck doesn't take you down. If you make the EV play every time (and your opponents don't go too crazy) you should be making money.

However, the problem here is that we have no read on what the big stack has - so he is essentially a random hand.

AQs has a 66.2% chance of winning versus a random hand. If we say that my friend will get the seat 90% of the time if he calls and wins, then his EV is $7,453.80.

If you fold, you and the smallest stack will be both allin on the next hand no matter what - and as I have said - the big stack will automatically call - so it is 3 random hands. The thing is, since you are the middle stack - you don't necessarily need to have the best hand in order to get your seat. If you and the smallest stack bust on this one hand - then you will take 2nd because you had more chips to start the hand.

So - on this hand, with three random hands, you will have a flat 66.67% chance of getting the seat. Your EV by folding the AQs and playing whatever you get in the next hand is a whopping $9,291. That's quite a difference.

Interestingly enough, if my friend had held pocket aces instead of AQs in this hand, it is a much closer question of fold or call (again, assuming that 90% of the time that he wins he'll also get the seat). His EV with aces would have been $9334.20.---MS TelinArtho2 (windia) 49 Fighter
TelinArthoPosted 5/11/2006 10:26:47 AMAfter unsuccessfully finding/buying a crusader helm, I've pretty much decided that I will hunt for one tonight when I get online. Floor 8 is apt to be crowded though - so I'll just have to hope it isn't too bad when I get there. It will be a game time decision though - since I don't have any tower scrolls right now - so the trip down and back will be a pain to work with.

The other way to do this might be to wait a few days and hope the prices on them start to drop a fair amount or at least wait until there are more that have above average stats. Getting a mithril crusader is about half or less than the price of a silver - but as long as it has the target wdef and mdef I'm looking for - it will suit me just fine.

---MS TelinArtho2 (windia) 49 Fighter

mlugia
Posted 5/11/2006 10:35:34 AM
Hey Dave,
If your mule is in Vic, Aerythn can provide you with a few scrolls. Just find me on Aerylus and I'll switch accounts.

In the meantime, 100exp per evil eye = hot. At 37 I think I might take a trip to Orbis. The drops at evil eyes blow hard.

TelinArtho
Posted 5/11/2006 11:16:20 AM
One of the things I just remembered about moving on to kitties was that I already had my nice cutlus at that point. You are probably having a slightly harder time than I did because of this (the difference between unscrolled and scrolled at that level was ~100 dmg or so I think). Hopefully, I can polish off 49 tonight and get you the cutlus. I am so looking forward to the boost I'll get from my new katar. Hopefully it will be at least +4 as well - though I'm really hoping for much more...

Also, I'm reconsidering making a brist to scroll for attack. I just realized that not only am I short in diamonds - I'm also short on gold. If it was only diamonds, I was not going to have that hard a time finding them for about 5k a piece (so 100k total for 20 of them), but adding in another 40 gold (I think I've got 14 right now - so really its just 26), will be much harder to find for 5k a piece. If I can, I will get them to make it - but at this point I'm wondering if it will be worth it.
Mithril brists are fairly frequent - and the extra 1 dex will still be +1 accuracy - so the only difference is really the 1 wdef. Since they are pretty common, getting a few from the market won't be too difficult and then I can see how scrolling goes.

I'm really looking forward to taking advantage of the double rates tonight. With 650k to go to level 50, I'll need to kill ~3000-3300 robots (either tobos or master robos) in order to advance. Going to master robos might be better for me if I can get lucky with a jewel katar drop that's better than my current one. They also drop other useful things - but I think overall the drops are better at tobos.

Thundon - are you going to be online in the 9pm-midnight range (6pm-9pm your time I think)? If you are and want to do tobos - that would help my decision process...

Also, on a side note - I'm very impressed with the cost of pansy earrings. Although they don't seem all that special, for some reason they sell very well on Basil Market...

---MS TelinArtho2 (windia) 49 Fighter

mlugia
Posted 5/11/2006 11:35:25 AM
Just got to Lv 37! First 3 points of FA, and I have this to say:

FA is the hottest thing since *censored*

Also I timed myself:70.03% at 1:4491.47% at 2:12=====21.44% in 28 minutes.

Not bad, but in an entire 50% at EE, my only drops were ores and speed pots. Bah. 2x drop isn't THAT great =( Not even a cutlus.

I guess I'll hold off the Orbis excursion till you're done with your cutlus. I wonder what I should do now. Maybe more training at EE? :/